In reading Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle's post-apocalyptic
Lucifer's Hammer, I found they made, in their chapter headings, a few references to a hard-to-find book by an Italian computer scientist called Roberto Vacca. I was able to buy an old used copy of it on Amazon, and found it to be a pretty interesting read:
The Coming Dark Age, by Roberto Vacca
The book was written around 1970, and Vacca expressed fears about Western civilization arising out its dependence on highly complex systems in order to function -- electricity, the phone networks, the traffic grid. While Vacca foresaw a collapse coming around 1995, he also saw the rise of computer systems as something that could, at least, temporarily forestall a collapse. And yet, in the long run, adding computers adds another degree of complexity to the equation. Certainly with things like the Y2K scenario, one can envision a problem in the world of highly networked computers could be a cause of the end of civilization as we know it. Vacca's book theorizes that some untoward event of sufficient size, even a "big enough" New York city traffic jam, could cause the end. While the end hasn't come yet, certainly if you look at the effects of an event like 9/11, one could see everything coming to a screeching halt very quickly.
I myself have often worried about the complexity of systems -- I work with computers, and am aware of both a) how fragile they are, and b) how much we depend upon them. It takes little imagination to envision a multi-system collapse today; it takes far more imagination to see the problem in 1970, which Vacca did. Even then, he understood that we are far too dependent on technology.
The book occasionally strays way too far out on speculative limbs -- for instance, he envisions Sweden surviving a general European collapse and having colonial governors in New York and London by 2000 -- but it is, nonetheless, an entertaining read, and Vacca
never fails to be interesting. He has one of those relentless minds that pushes toward inevitable conclusions, and he states the problem oh highly complex systems very well. Although his predicted collapse has not occurred, one takes small comfort in looking at the systems problem today, especially considering scenarios like EMP, dirty bombs, or large scale computer viruses which weren't thought of in 1970. We have been very fortunate, indeed.