Systems

A tower is built upon a base, a flower is built upon a stem. Take enough stones from the bottom of a tower, and it collapses -- and, generally, not in an orderly way. It comes down all at once. Rot the roots or the stem of a plant and the flower dies.

We live, especially in New England, in a tower, or, if you prefer, as a flower. There are a lot of people in New England, and the region is not self-sufficient from a food point of view. We depend on things brought in from other places. Meat and bread are brought in from the Midwest, shipped by rail or by truck into the region. In dairy items we are, perhaps, self-sufficient -- though I have not researched the issue deeply enough to truly know. In water we are likely self-sufficient. Consider the problem of water and how necessary it is, and it is certainly better to live in New England than it is to live in Las Vegas.

New England has not been self sufficient since it industrialized, probably since the beginning of the twentieth century. It supports a large population because of the goods and services it produces. In the twentieth century, these products were finished goods -- shoes, paper, guns, garments. These items are useful for barter and have a higher added value than food does. So we made a wager -- I will make you shoes, paper, and guns, and you will provide me with food. As long as I can trust you to make food for me, and you can trust me to make finished goods for you, all is well, and we each prosper. The Midwest grows the corn and wheat, we make the finished goods, and specialization makes both of us wealthy due to the division of labor. This is Adam Smith 101.

Of course, since about 1950, the goods New England has produced have become progressively more intangible. Rather than secondary goods -- the shoes, paper, guns, and garments -- we are now producing, well, tertiary goods. We produce technology, health care, media, and education. All good things, and in an ideal world in which the rule of law and societal order prevails, things that have a higher value than food or even than finished goods.

And things that depend, to an even greater degree, on order and trust. We trust the Midwest to produce our food, the South (and increasingly, China) to produce our finished goods, and we provide high tech, medical specialization, education, and media.

But we are living farther and farther removed from the essentials.

What happens if the rule of law fails? All of our transactions are dependent on, as I see it, three things.

First, we are dependent on currency to facilitate the exchanges. This currency, like the goods we produce, has become increasingly intangible. It once was based on two metals -- gold and silver. It then was made in paper and was based on the full faith and credit of the United States government -- paper that had printed on it words to the effect that it was legal tender for all debts, public and private. It is increasingly digital -- Boolean ones and zeroes stored in digital form on silicon hard drives and on little plastic cards.

Second, we are dependent on transportation -- rail lines and roads that make commerce between separated regions possible. The trains and trucks that serve commerce are powered primarily by oil. Even an electric train is ultimately dependent on oil; the power plant that generates the spark is probably fueled by oil or its byproduct, natural gas.

Third, we are dependent on contract law and interstate commerce to make transactions possible. If I deliver you a railroad car of shoes for ten railroad cars of wheat, and you fail to provide the wheat, I can sue you, with reasonable expectations that a court will enforce our contract and ultimately make you pay for the shoes.

These systems have been pretty reliable for the last 100 years.

The dilemma I see is that if these systems fail, I still need to eat.

I am worried that these systems all face threats that make failure possible. Electricity is tied to oil, and oil is controlled by people who hate us. The currency is increasingly becoming fiat -- where once the promise of the United States government was "as good as gold," the government is increasingly looking financially shaky. And our system of commerce is becoming so regulated that if I did indeed need to sue you, the courts are so crowded and Byzantine that I would probably starve to death while the lawsuit was still in the discovery phase.

I see a government run by, at best, adolescents, and in some cases, children -- not in terms of their age, for the President is older than I am in years, but in outlook -- a child always knows that no matter how bad he screws up, his parents will straighten it out for him. Mommy and daddy will step in and make everything right. This is the mindset of our leaders in government right now. They are not leading. They are playing games in the backyard. "Let's make Barry our King, and he can fix everything by magic." Except that there is no one minding the house, ready to call us in for dinner when night falls. Barry is not our king, and magic does not exist.

The problem is that in the world, America is the only adult in the room. Europe may think it is the parents -- for certainly, the Europeans scold like parents -- but the only thing that kept the Nazis and the Communists from enslaving them was our military. Right now, they are suffering from demographic collapse, and the Arabs are moving in and becoming increasingly powerful at the ballot box. The Europeans may be our parents, but if they are, they are frail and elderly and living in an increasingly bad neighborhood. They are going to be hassled by punks, and if they don't hand over their wallets and purses, they will get knocked down. It's tough to be an American right now, but still a damned sight better than being a European. Over there, it's Clockwork Orange time.

In New England, we live producing intangible things, paid by fiat currency, supported by laws that are dubious at best and a government that can't even pay its bills, never mind bail us out in an emergency. I can feel the tower trembling.

Food, water, and shelter -- it would be nice to have a guarantee of all these things right now. Who is going to give it to us now that there are no adults left in the room?